电力强劲 特斯拉是终极动力股吗

本文摘要:Everything is coming up roses for Tesla . The electric car company is enjoying an almost-unimaginable run of good fortune and is still being hotly pursued by investors.特斯拉(Tesla)于是以处在蜜运中。这家电动汽车公司的财富以不可思议的速度积存,而投资者仍在冷淡地欢迎它。


Everything is coming up roses for Tesla . The electric car company is enjoying an almost-unimaginable run of good fortune and is still being hotly pursued by investors.特斯拉(Tesla)于是以处在蜜运中。这家电动汽车公司的财富以不可思议的速度积存,而投资者仍在冷淡地欢迎它。Consider:想到这些:At a time when the overall stock market is idling with the parking brake on, Tesla shares are on a tear. Since the beginning of the year, they have risen 80%. Currently at $262, the stock is selling at close to its all-time high and has a market cap of $32 billion.在美国股市整体被“移开刹车”的情况下,特斯拉的股价还在一路狂飙。

自今年年初至今,其股价早已下跌了80%,目前每股大约262美元,相似该公司有史以来的最高值,市值超过320亿美元。States are falling all over themselves to be chosen as the site for Tesla’s proposed $5 billion Gigafactoryto produce lithium ion batteries. California is competing with Nevada, Arizona, New Mexico, and Texas, and the bidding for the factory, which could employ up to 6,500 people, is said to be up to $500 million.美国各州对特斯拉大献殷勤,期望在其计划投资50亿美元修建的大型锂电池工厂选址中落败。这家工厂有可能解决问题多达6500人的低收入。加利福尼亚州就正在与内华达、亚利桑那、新墨西哥和德克萨斯等州进行竞争,而更有该厂落户的条件据传是要给与5亿美元的反对。

Tesla has an order backlog of $226 million. At the production run rate of 1000 cars a week expected at the end of 2014, that translates to a 30-week backlog.特斯拉的积压订单超过2.26亿美元。到2014年之前,特斯拉的生产速度约为每周1000台,也就是说这些订单必须30周才能消化完了。Tesla says it enjoys sales per square foot at its showrooms that are double that of Apple . The tech company is currently considered the industry leader.特斯拉回应,在该公司的展厅里,每平方英尺的面积带给的销售额是苹果公司(Apple)的两倍,而苹果目前被普遍认为为是行业领军者。

The valuation that all this good news is creating for Tesla is truly astonishing. A Tesla watcher named Zoltan Ban, writing in Seeking Alpha, figures that Tesla is already priced as if it sells several hundred thousand cars a year when in reality it will sell only about 35,000 in 2014. Another way of looking at this: At current prices, each car the company sells this year is valued at $1 million.这些受到影响消息为特斯拉带给了十分难以置信的估值。一位名为佐尔坦o班的特斯拉仔细观察人士在金融网车站“找寻阿尔法“(Seeking Alpha)上认为,特斯拉现在的估值,相等于它每年早已需要售出几十万辆汽车,但实质上今年它不能售出35,000多辆车。

从另一个角度来说,特斯拉公司今年售出的每一台车,估值相等于高达100万美元。In other words, investors are paying far more for Tesla’s future promises than today’s performance by other luxury car manufacturers. Daimler, the manufacturer of Mercedes-Benz, sold more than 2.5 million vehicles last year and has a market cap of about $85 billion. So, although it sells 70 times more vehicles than Tesla, its market cap is less than three times greater.这意味著投资者于是以为特斯拉的未来前景投下重注,开价要相比之下低于对其他豪车厂商实际展现出的评估。梅塞德斯-飞驰(Mercedes-Benz)的制造商戴姆勒(Daimler)去年卖出了多达250万辆车,市值大约为850亿美元。

所以,尽管戴姆勒的销量是特斯拉的70多倍,但它的市值还将近特斯拉的3倍。Usually sober-minded analysts, accustomed to the auto industry’s slow growth, seem to shed their inhibitions when it comes to Tesla. Rod Lache of Deutsche Bank has attached a $310 price target on the stock. Not to be out-done, Adam Jonas of Morgan Stanley established a $320 price target and calls Tesla it the “most important car company in the world”.一般来说耐心的分析师们早就习惯了汽车行业的较慢快速增长,但是遇上特斯拉,他们就毁掉了一贯的慎重。德意志银行(Deutsche Bank)的分析师罗德o拉切给该股原作了310美元的目标价格。


无独有偶,摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)的分析师亚当o乔纳斯也将特斯拉的目标股价订为320美元,相提并论它是“世界上最重要的汽车公司”。Fuel for this latest burst of Tesla mania came from none other than Chairman and CEO Elon Musk in comments he made during an analyst call on July 31. The big news wasn’t that Tesla reported higher production for the second quarter and beat earnings estimates again.在7月31日的分析师电话会议上,特斯拉的董事长兼任CEO埃隆o穆斯克临死前给“特斯拉热”又再配了一把柴。这次会议上传出的“大新闻”并不是特斯拉第二季度产量再度提高并多达了收益预期。Musk said he expects to be producing cars at a 100,000-a-year rate by the end of 2015.而是穆斯克在会上回应,预计特斯拉到2015年底将构建10万台的年产量。

Selling that many cars would make Tesla larger than the U.S. arms of luxury makers like Lincoln and Porsche, both of which have more diverse product portfolios, long-established dealer networks, and refined strategies for marketing and advertising. Half the sales would come from the aging Model S sedan and the other half the new Model X seven-seat crossover that goes into production early next year.如果这个目标知道需要构建,预计特斯拉的规模将多达林肯(Lincoln)和保时捷(Porsche)等豪车品牌的美国分支。这两个老字号豪车品牌都有更加多样化的产品阵容、长年的经销商网络、成熟期的营销和广告策略。

特斯拉如果知道能售出预期的数字,那么其销量的半数将来自现有的Model S轿车,其它一半则来自明年年初才不会量产的Model X七座跨界车。This is not to take anything away from Tesla, which has demonstrated that it can create and manufacture a complex and sophisticated product with demonstrated customer appeal. But its own internal forecasts, as well as the swelling of its share price, are based on the expectation that the future will unspool in an orderly fashion identical to the recent past. That’s a dangerous assumption to make – for several reasons:这里并不是要给特斯拉倒入一瓢冷水。它早已证明自己具备生产一款简单、先进设备且外观诱人的产品的能力。

但无论是特斯拉自己的内部预测,还是投资人对其股票的欢迎,都基于某种程度一个预期,那就是特斯拉未来仍然不会沿袭最近的大热势头。这是一种危险性的假设,原因如下:o Tesla is a car for rich people. With an average price of $85,000, it is safe to say that few Tesla owners are buying one to save money on fuel, and the car’s range limitations mean that a Tesla is never the only car in an owner’s garage. At some point, these same people will stop viewing Tesla as the flavor of the month, its order backlog will shrink, and Tesla will have to scrap for sales like other manufacturers.特斯拉是一款富人车。在均价85,000美元的水平线上,可以说道卖特斯拉的人没有人不会在乎汽油钱。

特斯拉在续航里程上的短板,也说明了它意味著会是车主家里的唯一一辆车。如果这些人的新鲜劲儿过去了,特斯拉的订单储备就不会大跌,也不会像其它厂商一样必须为销量闯荡。The bigger Tesla gets, the more complex its operations become. Since it sells directly to customers and eschews franchised dealers, it will have to develop a network of service centers to handle repairs on the cars it sells. Its unusually generous warranty, which obligates it to buy back used cars for 50% of their original base price after three years, could create a second channel of used Teslas. “Tesla will be eating a lot of three-year-old cars that aren’t as sexy or rare as they were a year ago,” wrote one Seeking Alpha blogger. ‘To me, it sounds like a potential mess.”o 特斯拉的规模越大,运营的复杂性就就越强劲。


在我看来,这是个潜在的困难。”o Battery power may turn out to be a transition technology. Cost reductions have been slow in coming, and Tesla needs a 30% improvement in order to build the $35,000 Model 3 it has promised for 2017. Toyota’s recent move was eye-opening. It is allowing a battery-supply deal with Tesla to expire and instead will redouble its work on hydrogen fuel cells. The cost of fuel cells is coming down faster than batteries and fuel cell proponents believe drivers will prefer a relatively rapid refuel with hydrogen to waiting hours to recharge their batteries.电池电力有可能最后被证明是一种过渡性技术。最近电池成本的减少速度早已减慢了,特斯拉曾多次允诺要在2017年生产出有价格在35,000美元左右的Model 3。


而且燃料电池的拥趸们指出,车主认同不会更喜欢电池速度比较更慢的燃料电池,而不是要为电池等上好几个小时。o Outside events can intrude.Consumer Reports, which raved about the Model S, reported a few “quirks” recently that included door handles that failed to activate and a center touch screen that went blank, blocking access to most of the car’s functions. Edmunds.com has had trouble with its Model S too. More reports like that will dent Tesla’s heretofore shining reputation.外部事件的影响。


《消费者报告》(Consumer Reports)杂志曾多次对Model S广受讥讽,但最近该杂志也报导了它的一些常见故障,还包括门把手过热,中控触屏白屏,造成车内大部分功能无法用于等等。汽车网车站Edmunds.com也去找了Model S的困难。更加多此类报告毫无疑问不会影响特斯拉到目前为止十分正面的声誉。

None of these potential clouds appear to darken the sunny view from Tesla headquarters in Palo Alto. Tesla is sticking with its middle term goal of building 500,000 cars a year by 2020. Much will depend on the ability of the Model X to maintain the current momentum – and mystique. Tesla has steeply ramped up spending on capital expenditures and RD to make sure the launch, already a year behind schedule, is a success.不过目前来看,这些潜在的乌云或许都没遮盖特斯拉在帕洛阿尔托总部的阳光。特斯拉依然坚决在2020年之前年产50万辆汽车的中期目标。这在相当大程度上要各不相同Model X否有能力保持当前的势头。特斯拉早已大大提高了资本和研发开支,以保证Model X的成功公布(虽然早已延期了一年)。

Morgan Stanley’s Jonas believes the Model X will sell more based on features like its upgraded infotainment system unique “falcon-wing” back-seat doors than fuel economy and he will be disappointed if the Model X doesn’t win every major car of the year award. He isn’t alone. So will Elon Musk and a whole lot of Tesla investors who pray that the momentum behind this amazing stock keeps building.摩根士丹利的分析师乔纳斯指出,Model X的销量将不会更为相当可观,但不是由于它的燃油经济性,而是它升级后的信息娱乐系统,以及独有的“鹰翼”式后车门。他还回应,如果Model X没夺得所有的年度车型大奖,他不会十分沮丧。他并不是唯一一个这样想要的人。




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